Tag Archives: Relazioni Internazionali

Tunisia and the Arab Spring: the success of the Awakening

Tunisia Arab spring

Tunisia and the Arab Spring: the success of the Awakening

Author: Pierre Varasi
January 2015

The 23rd November 2014 Tunisia dealt with its first democratic elections since its birth in the ‘50s, after obtaining independence. Since that moment, the Neo Destour party, one of the most repressive and authoritarian of the Arab world, has led the country. The demonstrations that since the end of 2010 have concerned all Tunisian cities, originating the so-called ‘Jasmine Revolution’, inspired the Arab Spring, considered a revolutionary movement that should have brought democracy to all the states involved (from Morocco to Yemen). Unfortunately, in most of them what the Arab Awakening left has nothing to do with democracy: instability is everywhere, with a civil war in Syria, militaries in power in Egypt and terroristic groups that threaten peace.

Tunisia is perhaps the only exception among these countries, the silver lining of years of internal fights. The elections, followed by a second ballot the 22nd December, saw the victory of Bèji Caïd Essebsi, of the moderate party Nidaa Tounes, that defines itself as secular, social democratic, liberal and innovative. The party won with the 55.68% of total votes, opening a new chapter of Tunisia’s history, and this should bring to the country’s stabilization.

We are now waiting for the creation of the government, expected this month, and from that moment, it is all downhill. Nonetheless, as always in today’s globalized world, internal work, as necessary as it is, will not be enough. Before the protests that began in 2010 the 7% of the country’s GDP consisted in tourism, and it will be difficult to bring it back to those levels, after these hard times. Economy has almost always gone hand in hand with democracy, and as much as the causal connection is not clear, it is easy to understand that a working economy will be in the next months one of the most important factor in deciding the effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) of the new government, its length and outcome.

While in a stable country economic problems can lead, in the worst scenario, to new elections, in a democratically fragile and young state, close to even more unstable countries, we cannot consider the attempts to make things work properly unlimited. Politicians and the population itself cannot underestimate the risk of an ‘authoritarian fall back’. An economic growth is definitely more important here than anywhere else. The institute of microcredit, which was born in Bangladesh in the ‘70s, has a decisive role here, as in all ‘Third World’ countries; however, the growth has to come both from the government as well as from national and international entities to be enduring.

Reforms have already begun, and from January 2015 the new financial law will be effective. Presented by the finance minister Hakim Ben Hammouda, the law includes, among different actions, that the offshore companies operating in Tunisia will be able to allocate 50% of their production to the sale in local markets, limit previously of the 30%. Moreover, investments will be encouraged with the reduction of taxes for new industries and with the revision of VAT to 6% for imported machineries.

Foreign investment will save Tunisia, and the government knows it, as the economic provisions show. Funds from the EU, that in 2014 has invested around 201 million euro in its economy and territory, will help the country too. Ten more million have been recently donated through subsidies, such as helping small agricultural entrepreneurships that will absorb five of these. Two will be invested in the management of a program for agricultural development, and the remaining three will reinforce an already existing program that works in the Medenine governorship, still with an agricultural and environmental aim.

In 2015, the International Monetary Fund predicts a growth of 3%, a decrease in the level of inflation, especially thanks to the recent fiscal reforms that the government is implementing, and a deficit decrease from 7.9 to 6.6% of GDP. The forecasts are therefore positive, and this will not only have consequences for the economy, which will definitely grow, but it should bring political and social stability. The stabilization and growth of the country is nonetheless threatened by the tensions in the Maghreb region and in the Middle East, and in particular by what is going to happen in Libya. Only a direct response of the Govern to social problems as youth unemployment and gender inequality present in the country will make Tunisia the very first success of the Arab Spring.

SOURCES:
- Euronews.com
- Lastampa.it
- Ifm.org
- Ansamed.info
- Africaneconomicoutlook.org

Tunisia Jasmine Revolution

TUNISIA JASMINE REVOLUTION

Tunisia Rivoluzione Gelsomini

Author: Elisa Mariani
Translated by Martina Paoli
August 2016

THE JASMINE REVOLUTION IN TUNISIA: FIVE YEARS LATER

Five years after the Jasmine Revolution, Tunisia still has to face many challenges. Governed by Bèji Caïd Essebsi, it is considered as a successful leading example, which inspired the Arab Spring, thanks to the remarkable changes adopted by the new social democratic government.

The Zine El Abidine Ben Ali absolutism overthrow has been strongly endorsed by population, especially young people, protesting for different reasons (poverty, regional discrepancy, unemployment, dictatorship) and has resulted in the draft of a new progressive constitution.

It focuses on the restoration of some of the most important human rights, including freedom of religion, speech, conscience, strike, and gender equality between men and women concerning the attribution of institutional offices and issues related to inheritance.

Nevertheless, the current government has not fulfilled its promises, since there has not occurred a real economic development after this social-political progress. For this reason, today as five years ago, citizens of Tunisia take to the streets to request new economic reforms.

The most worrying indicator is the unemployment rate, which stood at 15.4% in April 2016, against a 13% measured between October 2010 and January 2011. Therefore, a 2.4% more in comparison with the period in which there were the first signs of the Jasmine Revolution. These data are even more alarming if we consider that the 55% of Tunisians are under 25 years of age.

However, at the beginning of 2016 the Tunisian Solidarity Bank approved many loan applications and projects, which will permit creating more than 14,720 jobs. Moreover, according to recent estimates, currently the GDP amounts to 44.6 billion US dollars, against 47.3 estimated in 2014 and 45.2 of 2015, underlining a clear decrease.

Another significant parameter is the increase in the public debt, from 24.6 billion US dollars in 2012 to 28.4 billion US dollars in 2016. The companies’ competitiveness index is 3.93% in 2016, against 4.49% of 2010.

A modest improvement relating to the ease of doing business index took place in 2015 (74), with respect to 2014 (75). The lowest Tunisian value was estimated in 2010 (40). There has been an increase in the private consumption, from +3.7 in 2013 to +4.4 in 2016.

Because of the decrease in the main economic indexes, the government of Tunisia is working to realise the Development Plan 2016-2020. This strategy includes a number of reforms aimed at creating additional jobs and intensifying the struggle against poverty.

In fact, economic interventions relating to urban infrastructures and incentives for industry and green economy are expected to be done. They require an investment of 50 billion euro, which is possible thanks to the exploitation of local resources and the private contributions. The final aim of this policy is to reach an increase of 4% in the annual GDP.

The most profitable sectors of the country are service industry and manufacturing, which represent a large part of GDP (respectively 61.2% and 29% of the GDP, according to 2015 estimates). Tunisia boasts a great exportation of agricultural products.

Tourism gives a wide contribution in the job creation and is a fundamental activity for the economic welfare of the country. Regarding the commercial relations with foreign countries, Italy plays a very important role, as it is one of the principal Tunisian allies. In 2015, Italy’s export to Tunisia amounted to €3,033 million, while import from Tunisia amounted to €2,300 million.

Sources:

- cia.gov (Central Intelligence Agency US)
- infomercatiesteri.it
- tradingeconomics.com
- lookoutnews.it
- schedeflash.it
- esteri.it
- huffingtonpost.it

TURKEY : AN EMERGING ECONOMY IN THE CENTRE OF THE MIDDLE EAST WARS

Turkey - un paese emergente nel mezzo della guerra

TURKEY : AN EMERGING ECONOMY IN THE CENTRE OF THE MIDDLE EAST WARS

Author: Diego Caballero Vélez
March, 2015

Currently, when we talk about Turkey the first image that appears in our minds is whose of rich cities, good economy, a great educational system that promotes EU spirit giving to Turkish students the possibilities to go to the EU for studying, etc. In general lines, our vision of this country are that is a Muslim one but with an occidental vision.

The importance of this country lies in the economic growth that starts in 2002 and still continues. From this year till now, the Turkish economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of 5%, that is an incredible figure taking in account the economic crisis in which we are and the external conflicts of his neighboring countries.

Turkey lacks of oil and gas reserves but the competitiveness of his services, most of all in the tourism sector, and his industry, compensates it. This competitiveness has done that many countries turn their gaze to Turkey for investment in export products. The sector of renewal energies has become one of the most important of the countries and the countries that want to invest, they do in this sector. They mainly proportionate the necessary materials that the country needs to keep up with the development of this sector.

But how has it succeeded such a thing like that considering that 30 years ago had a poor economy? The answer lies in two main points: social stability and rebuilding of all the system. The first element has been fundamental for the success of the Turkish economy, being that the country in the last decade has adopted a moderate stance away from extremism. The rebuilding of the system means that has been a rebuilding of the bank system and control of budget and investments in infrastructures, education, health and technology.

From 2002, there has been a fall in unemployment, low debt and budget deficit (1’9 GDP), although the economic rising in the last years has slowed. I should also emphasize the important rise of the middle class. But not everything seems to be good for the Turkish future. Erdogan, president of Turkey, whose Muslim nationalism is provoking that Turkey was not as laic as everybody used to think. This produces instability in the society, being that his neighbors are convulsive regions with extremism.

So, the economic future of Turkey lies in the developments of the neighboring wars as Syria´s, the advance of ISIS, etc., and his neutrality; the social stability and betting on the laic system that has done of Turkey a stability supporting the economic rise; and finally, keeping up investing in tourism and renewal energies always with a close economic cooperation with the EU.

LINK Turkey Gov.

SOURCES

- http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2013/06/07/actualidad/1370605232_985185.html
- http://www.cnbc.com/id/100390252
- http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140338/daniel-dombey/six-markets-to-watch-turkey
- http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/23/opinion/akyol-how-turkey-sabotaged-its-future.html?_r=0

EU JAPAN

EU JAPAN – Economic partnership agreement

EU JAPAN economic partnership agreement

Author : Lorenzo Giusepponi

Translated by : Matteo Aristei

January 2018

Japan and Europe will be closer and there will be greater opportunities for the companies of both countries about their respective export markets . On the 7th December, the president of EU Commission Jean -Claude Juncker and the Japanese premier Shinzo Abe have announced the negotiation ‘ s finalisation for a free trade agreement that has begun in 2013, and it will cover the 30 % of the world GDP and a block of 600 million people, underlining the common willingness to send to the entire world a strong message in favour of free trade and against protectionism . Now a complex procedure for the official signature will be opened, it is expected for the next summer and it concerns the debate of the remaining technical questions until the achieving of a final text . Then, the agreement has to be approved by both European Parliament and parliaments of each Member States . Both parts foresee that the agreement will enter into force at the beginning of 2019 .

General framework

The EU companies export already to japan goods for over 58 billions euros and services for 28 billions . Furthermore, Japan is the fourth biggest market for the agricultural exportation of EU, and they are worth 20 times higher than the Japanese exportation in the Union . However, European companies are facing obstacles in trade when they export in Japan .
With the EU JAPAN Economic Partnership Agreement, farming communities and producers of food and drink will access easier to the Japanese market, with higher possibilities to sell their products to 127 millions Japanese consumer .

Food sector

Japanese consumer appreciate high quality european products such as wine, cheese, chocolate, pigmeat and pasta, but Japan requires high customs duties on these products and other european food and drink : 30 – 40 % on cheese, 38,5 % on pigmeat, 15 % on wine, until the 24 % on pasta and 30 % on chocolate . Thanks to this agreement, Japan will remove customs duties more than the 90 % of agricultural exportation of EU from the first day and will acknowledge 205 geographical indications that are chosen by Member States for their real and potential exportation value in the Japanese market . As a result, only products with such status can be sold in Japan . This will make illegal to sell imitation products and will ensure to japanese consumers that they are buying a real european product .

Food security

Japanese rules on food security, as well as the european ones, are between the most demanding in the world . For example, Japan doesn’t allow the use of growth hormone in the production of bovine meat, and the legislation that regulates GMO is very important for japan consumers . Like for other Union ’ s economic agreements, the EU JAPAN agreement won’t certainly prejudice the european level of protection in matter such as food security . All the imports of products of animal origin in the EU from Japan will continue , in addition to they must be accompanied by a veterinary certificate, as is the case today .

Exportation

Japan is the fourth leading economy in the world and is the second biggest trade partner of EU in Asian after China . However for Europe, Japan is only the seventh exportation market. Experts foresee that the facilities of exportation in Japan will lead to benefits for EU companies which produce and trade agri – food products as well as electrical machinery, pharmaceutical products, medical devices, means of transport, textile products and clothing . In fact, european exportation of transformed food in Japan could increase of 180 %, that is equal to an increasing of sales until 10 billions of euro . In addition, since Japan has accepted to adapt rules related to car to the international rules used by EU, for car manufacturers in EU will be easier sell their vehicles in Japan . Furthermore, since that every billion euro of exportation from Eu to japan corresponds to 14.000 job in Europe, the more Europe exports, the more it will be possible create and protect employments .

Contracts

It is estimated that a developed economy like the EU one or the Japan one, the purchase of goods and services from the State represent over the 15 % of the total economy . It is a big market, full of trade opportunities . Thanks to the EU JAPAN agreement, EU will obtain a better access to japanese calls of tender in terms of central,regional and local administration . One of the EU’s priority in negotiations was to ensure a higher access to the japanese market of rail infrastructure . Japan has partly accepted and has decided to open contracts to EU tenderers for hospitals, academic institutions and energy distribution as well as grant to EU suppliers a not discriminatory access to the contracts market of 48 cities of about 300.000 people which represent the 15% of the country’s population . For its part, EU has partially accepted to open its market of rail plants for public transport in the city and has granted to Japan a better access to contracts which are organised by municipality .

Environmental protection

EU undertakes to ensure that its trade policy favours sustainable development .
The EU JAPAN economic partnership agreement is no exception . Moreover, EU and Japan undertake to : protect and handle natural resources in a sustainable way, address biodiversity problems ( also fighting illegal logging ) and practice a sustainable fishing .

Article sources for EU JAPAN :

- ec.europa.eu
- www.ilsole24ore.com
- video

Paris agreement

Paris agreement

Accordo di Parigi sui cambiamenti climatici

“ Paris agreement : the fate of climate change ”

Author : Giulia Turchetti
Translated by : Matteo Aristei
December 2017

In the twenty-first Paris climate conference ( COP21 ) on December 2015, as many as 195 countries have ratified the first worldwide agreement and it is binding in legal terms of “ Paris agreement ” climate .

“ Paris agreement ” means a global agreement on climate changes, with the aim of creating an action plan in order to limit global warming below 2 ° C . The conclusion of this agreement comes from the need to find a remedy for climate change : an important global issue with possible repercussions for everyone . Due to the small participation on the Kyoto Protocol and due to the lack of an agreement in Copenhagen in 2009, European Union contributed with the realization of a large coalition of developed and developing Countries in order to achieve prestigious purposes . This determined clearly the positive outcome of the Paris conference .

The governments of the signatory countries have therefore decided to meet every five years in order to determine more ambitious purposes on the basis of scientific knowledge, to inform the other Member States and the public opinion about what they are doing in order to achieve their fixed purposes, and to report the progress made through a system based on transparency and responsibility .

In Germany, Bonn as well, was held on last November the United Nations World Conference on Climate, or simpler known as Cop 23 : this is the summit of commitments given at the Cop21 in Paris and they have to keep them as civic commitment in the future . This is a commitment that is urgently needed : scientist, in fact, talk about how World is in its warmest period in the history of human civilization and that the main cause of this phenomenon is the man itself .

Unfortunately, the time remaining is little and it is essential to take the steps of a fast and ambitious climatic revolution, realizing the vision of Paris, making it real .

The main purpose of the Paris Agreement is to hold global warming effects, limiting harmful consequences that come from climatic change created by the man, as from 2020 . In this respect, industrialized countries will contribute to the allocation of an annual fund “ Green Climate Fund ” of 100 billion for the transfer of clean technologies in the Countries that need a support in order to start their own green economy .

Despite United States are the main promoter of this important aim, because they are classifiable between the major polluters and they are responsible of the climatic change, today they could fleeing the scene . With a new administration, led by Donald Trump, United States withdraw in their isolationism because the president itself has repeatedly said that the Paris agreement would be an unbalanced agreement, which undermines American’s interest and it constitutes an obstacle to the realization of making “ America great again ”. Together with this withdrawal, there is also the disappearance of an entire section on the climate change from the site of the White House, and it was replaced by an another section on an energetic plan for America . The intention of Trump is to eliminate policies like the “ Climate Action Plan ”, because in Trump’s opinion they are harmful and useless . The “ Climate Action Plan ” is the plan for the emission reduction and it was signed by his predecessor Obama .

However, it’s not possible to exit in a unilateral and linear way from the Paris agreement . In fact, it contains room of three years, four in all. When this period will be spent, the end of the Trump’s mandate will come . The position of United States about climatic change could therefore be negotiated another time and it won’t be definitive, also because the hypothetical destruction of the Paris agreement means the destruction of the world itself .

SOURCES ” PARIS AGREEMENT “:

Europa.eu
Nazioni Unite
Wikipedia

PARIS AGREEMENT ORIGINAL :

Accordo di Parigi English Version

contact IBS by mail

Trump – DONALD TRUMP’S ECONOMIC PLAN

Trump – DONALD TRUMP’S ECONOMIC PLAN

Trump piano economico per gli Stati Uniti d America

Author: Lorenzo Giusepponi
December 2017

After a long and bitter campaign for the US presidency, Donald Trump has triumphed over Hillary Clinton . The Republican is now the 45 th American President and his first term is from 2017 to 2021 . His economic plan focuses on ” making America great again .” Trump entered the White House flanked by Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, but his prior clashes with Republican leaders, particularly with House Speaker Paul Ryan, suggest that he may have trouble passing his entire legislative agenda . Democrats, meanwhile, may act to block some of his proposals, despite their Congressional disadvantage . On the one hand, for Trump’s supporters he represents a chance to shake up a system that many Americans feel has increased inequality and squeezed living standards, on the other, for less complacent investors, there are worries Trump’s anti-globalization mantra will spread protectionism around the world, put up trade barriers and curb global economic growth .

Reactions after the news of his victory

Trump was not always clear and consistent about his policies, and when he was, they were often unorthodox enough to have unpredictable consequences . This resulting uncertainty helps explain the market reaction to his win in the early morning of November 9, 2016 . The Dow Johns, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes, as well as the European, Japanese and Chinese stock markets, began to fall . Then, except in the case of the Mexican peso, which continued to slump against the dollar, these initial reactions reversed themselves . Here are then, Trump’s plans in the major fields of the economy .

Growth

During the third televised debate, Trump promised to bring GDP from 1 % up to 4 % and even higher, to 6 % annually . Trump believes in supply-side economics, that is the theory that says increased production drives economic growth . Supply – side fiscal policy focuses on businesses . Its tools are tax cuts and deregulation. Companies that benefit from these policies hire more workers . The resultant job growth creates more demand which further boosts growth . But Arthur Laffer, the originator of that theory, says tax rates must be higher than they are today for the strategy to work . Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is less gung – ho, telling Congress that the administration’s target is 3 % or higher . The Tax Foundation is more sanguine about Trump’s prospects . The think tank projected in September that his policies would increase GDP by 6.9 % to 8.2 % over the long term .

Jobs

The Peterson Institute for International Economics ( PIIE ) wrote in September 2016 that it expects Trump’s policies, if implemented, to set off ” a trade war that would plunge the US economy into recession and cost more than 4 million private sector American jobs .” Moody’s is only slightly less pessimistic, arguing that Trump’s policies would result in 3.5 million fewer jobs after four years, with unemployment rising to perhaps 7 % from its current level of 4.9 % . Trump said he wanted to create jobs by eliminating outsourcing and bringing jobs back from Japan, China and Mexico . The problem really exists . The U.S. lost 34 percent of its manufacturing jobs between 1998 and 2010. Many were outsourced by U.S. companies to save money . Others were eliminated by new technology, including robotics, artificial intelligence and bio-engineering . Government – sponsored training for these specialties might create more jobs for U.S. workers than would Trump’s trade war .

Taxes

Here again, Trump has played into frustrations among many Americans over their sense of financial insecurity, inequality and squeezed incomes . Trump, who has faced fierce criticism for appearing to escape paying income tax himself for almost two decades, promised tax cuts for all income groups . He has also said he would “ ensure the rich pay their fair share ”. But analysis by the Tax Foundation has found Trump’s tax plan would disproportionately help the richest Americans, saving them millions . On December 17 House and Senate Republicans released the text of a bill to overhaul the federal tax code, with final votes expected the following week . Among the many things, the bill would retain the current structure of seven individual income tax brackets, but in most cases it would lower the rates . It would end the individual mandate, a provision of the Obamacare that provides tax penalties for individuals who do not obtain health insurance coverage, in 2019 . Also, it would change the measure of inflation and set the corporate tax rate at 21 % .

Trade

On his campaign site Trump promised to ” negotiate fair trade deals that create American jobs, increase American wages, and reduce America’s trade deficit, ” asserting that decades of free-trade policies were responsible for the collapse of the American manufacturing industry .
• Mexico and NAFTA : Mexico has come in for particular criticism ; Trump repeatedly threatened to slap 35 % tariffs on cars imported from Mexico . At $ 74 billion, vehicles were the largest category of imports from Mexico in 2015, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s website . The U.S. had a $ 67.5 billion trade deficit with Mexico in goods in 2015, but a $ 9.6 billion surplus in services . Trump has also singled out the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ), which he called the ” single worst trade deal ever approved in this country “. Trump is expected to call for NAFTA to be renegotiated or to withdraw from it altogether ; he appears to have authority to pull out of the agreement by giving six months’ notice, according to article 2205 of the treaty . Some experts believe he would need Congress’ support, however .
• Trans – Pacific Partnership : The Trans – Pacific Partnership ( TPP ), a trade agreement that the U.S. signed but did not come up for a ratification vote in Congress, would have reduced trade barriers among 12 Pacific Rim nations . The pact’s prospects were already dim before Trump’s election made it a dead letter . On January, Trump signed an order to withdraw from further negotiations on the deal, promising to replace it with a series of bilateral agreements .
• China : The president has also criticized China, claiming that it suppresses the value of its currency, the yuan, in order to gain an export advantage . While China maintained a dollar peg that held the yuan’s value down from 2008 to 2010, the evidence now suggests the government is intervening to lift, rather than lower, the yuan’s value . The country’s foreign currency reserves fell from nearly $ 4 trillion in March 2014 to just over $ 3.1 trillion in October . Even so, Trump promises to declare China a currency manipulator and impose tariffs of up to 45 % on its exports .

Infrastructure

Trump has promised to dramatically increase infrastructure investment . His most notable project is the wall he has promised to build along the border with Mexico. He insists that Mexico will reimburse the U.S. for the cost of the wall, which he has estimated at $ 5 billion to $ 10 billion . Independent estimates and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell have put the cost as high as $ 25 billion . Beyond the border wall, Trump has made early moves to encourage other infrastructure projects such as improvements to the electrical grid and telecommunications systems, as well as repairs and upgrades to highways, bridges, ports, airports and pipelines .

Healthcare

Trump has promised to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obama care . About 20 million people have insurance thanks to the ACA but the scheme has struggled to run efficiently because it relies on competition between insurers to provide affordable coverage, and that competition has dwindled. In the early days of Trump’s administration, there was little clarity about what would replace Obamacare . Trump had proposed measures during the campaign such as funding Medicaid, allowing insurers to sell across state lines, importing drugs, allowing patients to deduct insurance premiums from their tax returns and allowing them to shop around for the most cost – effective treatments .

Immigration

Trump made immigration a centerpiece of his campaign from the time he announced his candidacy in June 2015 . He proposed changing federal law to prevent those born in the U.S. to undocumented parents from automatically gaining citizenship . He wants immigrants to be selected on the basis of “ their likelihood of success in the US and their ability to be financially self – sufficient ”. After the expiration of the 120 – day travel ban, which prevented all immigrants from 7 Muslim majority countries from entering to the US, Trump is to allow them to enter again, with stricter rules for applicants from 11 ” high risk ” nations . Applicants will be restricted for a 90 – day review period . The Department of Homeland Security will collect more biographical data such as the names of family members and places of employment . Trump also promised to deport the 2 million to 3 million immigrants in the United States illegally who have criminal records and asked Congress to withhold federal funds from ” sanctuary cities . ”

National Debt

Trump repeatedly criticized the growth of the national debt – which stands at nearly $ 20 trillion as of January 30 . Independent analyses, on the other hand, see Trump’s plan to lower taxes and boost spending on infrastructure and defense as adding trillions to the debt .

Energy

Donald Trump has repeatedly called climate change a ” hoax “. In May, Trump said he would renegotiate last year’s Paris Agreement, which saw 195 states pledge to limit average global temperature rises to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre – industrial levels . The United States is responsible for 20 percent of the world’s carbon emissions . It would be difficult for the other signatories of the Paris Agreement to reach their goal without U.S. participation . Trump said he wanted to negotiate a better deal, but leaders from Germany, France and Italy said the accord is non – negotiable . China and India joined the other leaders in stating they remain committed to the accord . It will take four years to formally withdraw . That means it will become an issue in the next presidential election .

Trump’s plan for the first hundred days included a promise to ” cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure . ” On October 2017, the Trump administration announced it would repeal the Clean Power Plan which was designed to lower carbon emissions by 2030 to 32 % below 2005 levels . The repeal would withdraw Obama – era limits on carbon emissions at U.S. power plants . That was part of Trump’s campaign promise to revive the coal industry while remaining committed to clean coal technology . Trump claimed this would raise wages by $ 30 billion over seven years . The chief of the EPA, Scott Pruitt has recently signed a measure to repeal the act, but the proposal will now have to go through a formal public-comment period before being finalized, a process that could take months . Trump also pledged to allow more drilling on federal lands of shale oil and natural gas and there are also worries he will curb investment into renewable energy sources .

Monetary policy

This is not strictly an area for the government, given interest rates are set by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, widely referred to as the Fed. But there were worries during the presidential race that a win for Trump would undermine its independence . The president – elect has previously accused the Fed of keeping borrowing costs low to help president Obama and has said the central bank’s policies have created a “ false economy ” . In an interview with Fortune magazine, Trump also said he “ absolutely ” backed efforts to diminish the Fed’s power . The Fed has a Congressional mandate to generate maximum employment ( 4.5 % to 5 % unemployment ) and steady prices ( annual core PCE inflation of 2 % ) . Aside from those requirements, however, it is independent, meaning it does not have to seek approval from any branch of government to change monetary policy . Given Trump’s accusations that the Fed is acting politically, some have expressed the worry that Trump will attempt to curtail monetary policy independence, as several past presidents have done .

To date we can see a disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the real. While stock markets continue to reach new highs, the US economy grew at an average rate of just 2 % in the first half of 2017 – slower growth than under President Obama . For the first three months of 2017, 533,000 people have found jobs but that is the lowest March quarter total since 2011. Inflation is low, and corporate profits are soaring . High market valuations that are fuelled by liquidity and irrational exuberance do not reflect economic realities .

Sources:

- www.investopedia.com
- www.thebalance.com
- www.theguardian.com
- www.fortune.com
- www.forbes.com
- www.bbc.com
- www.nytimes.com

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UN

UN – United Nations

ONU Organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite

“ UN FOR THE DAY OF REMEMBRANCE ”

AUTHOR : Giulia Turchetti
TRANSLATED BY : Matteo Aristei

How was born UN ? From the League of Nation to UN

Between the numerous international organisations, UN ( United Nations ) plays a key role and it is decisive on the world stage . It consists in the Union of States and its powers are supranational .

Today UN has finished its half century of life and it owes its existence to the numerous Member States which compose it ( states are increasing now ) and all this has the aim of obtaining independence from former colonies .

The UN organisation’s origin are based on the ash of the old League of Nation which was established after the First World War and lived only a quarter of a century . With the aim of ensuring peace and preventing the horrors that the Great War had created, it could resolve controversy through conciliation, intervening only where it was necessary the use of armed force .
It was able to encourage the international cooperation and for this it obtained great recognition. It obtained positive outcome that had the effect of making it known as the centre of European diplomacy between 1920 and 1932 ; but from the beginning of the half of the 1930 s , this Society started to have a slow but gradual decline . United States were sponsor of its creation but in those years, the President Wilson decreed the withdrawal of the Country from the League of Nation, weakening it significantly . In fact, consequences were the dominance of European nations such as France and England : the League of Nation was too Eurocentric and this caused its own end. Furthermore, a series of events ,such as the German occupation of Rhineland in 1936, made bode the outbreak of an imminent conflict : the one that will have been known as the Second World War .

However, although the League of Nation has proved to be failed, it denoted an important moment of growth for the international administrative system . Therefore UN represents the development of the League of Nation because, between many aspects, it shared the incurrence of peace and the prevention of conflicts of all kinds. Its Carta was signed in 1945 in San Francisco .

UN wants to encourage social progress, to suppress intolerance and to ensure the international security. Sometimes, in order to demand respect of its provisions, it makes use of “ blue berets ”, which are guarantee of the suspension of act of war . It supervise the respect and the violations of human rights in the UN States, informing public opinion on the state of human rights in the world .

However in its long story, although UN was promoter of important matters, such as the the maintenance of peace and security in the world, it didn’t equally prevent the occurrence of atrocious wars that are ongoing .

Specialised institutions

Today UN has numerous specialised institutions, each of which carries out a specific function . These are some examples: Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO ), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization ( UNESCO ), World Health Organization ( WHO ), United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees ( UNHCR ) and United Nations Children’s Fund ( UNICEF ).

UNICEF and UNHCR are also examples of NGOs, i.e. non-govermental organization, which are characterized by two aspects : the private character and the absence of profit . In fact, receiving an important part of their income from private sources, they undertake for the development of countries that are more back in social and economical point of view .

Day of Remembrance

In 2005 UN has established an international recurrence that is very important : the Day of Remembrance for the memorial of the holocaust’s victims. UN has decreed this, because 27th january 1945 is the date of the liberation of concentration camps . Furthermore, in this day, intolerance, hate and aggressiveness for people and communities for their religious and ethnic differences are condemned without qualification. Especially, it is important to remember because, in order to be aware citizen, the knowledge of the facts and events that are actually happened is a fundamental prerogative . The history tells about a rational and well – organised genocide that had technologies and efficient plants for the extermination of an entire population in the heart of Europe .
UN ’s member states have the duty to transmit to the new generations the “ Holocaust ’s lessons ”, and therefore historically significant places of Shoah that must be protected . UN openly refuses the denial .

For this, today, the Secretary-General of UN, Antonio Guterres addresses to an exhortation that will have a huge impact : “ be unite against standardisation of hate, because every time and everywhere human values are abandoned, we are all in risk . All of us have the responsibility to fight racism and violence with immediacy, clarity and decision . With education and comprehension, we can build our future made by dignity, human rights and pacific coexistence for everyone .

www.un.org/
www.agensir.it
www.unric.org/it

Developing Countries: How to Escape the Poverty Trap?

Paesi in via di sviluppo, Come uscire dalla trappola della povertà

Developing Countries: How to Escape the Poverty Trap?

Author: Pierre Varasi
January 2015

2.5 billion people in the world live under the poverty line, of 2$ per day. 1.3 billion live under the extreme poverty line, which means with less than 1.25$ per day. Sub-Saharan Africa represents alone 46.8% of these (data of 2011). Right after it, we can find South Asia, with 24.5%. Wondering about the origin and the causes of this phenomenon is clearly important, but these are not easy to find: some scholars blame their ‘cultural underdevelopment’, others the European colonization, the remaining blame the climatic and territorial peculiarities. Anyway, theories that are hard to reconcile. As much as we could find arguments in favor of each of them, I think it is more important to understand what to do instead of looking at what caused it.

The developed states have tried for years to help these countries. Since the end of the Second World War, we have witnessed a great acceleration in the growth of institutions, movements and associations for development. However, at almost 70 years from that moment, aids have proved to be almost useless. What is wrong is not the amount of help or its form; but how states delivered it, and what this aid has led to. Specifically, in a great amount of poor areas, the developed countries have not respected the traditions and local culture, while they simply brought tools and western habits too, without taking into consideration the uniqueness of each of the receiving state.

Even more important is to consider that some kind of interest is usually behind the aid: economic, bonded to specific politics or programs, or to the purchase of goods from the country that brought the aid. We can do similar critiques to the Bretton Woods institutions: the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization. The developing countries underline how the world powers control and influence them, and that they dictate only one economic vision, the neo-liberal; they damage the state sovereignty with their impositions; they grant assets, although without taking responsibilities for the workers and the migrants that every economic transformation involve. Last but not least, the developed countries apply the same methods everywhere in the same way.

None of this means that help is not necessary. In a poor country most of the income is devoted to consumption, and this reduces savings. This also means lower investments, funds for technological innovations and so on, which brings low production and a slow rate of growth. This is the poverty trap, called this way as low production will lead again to limited consumption that will represent most of the country’s income. What can change the situation at this point is a foreign investment, which, if well used, can bring to the development of key industrial sectors and of tourism.

From this fact derives the importance of commerce, which increased constantly since the ‘50s, leading to changes and innovations all over the world. We must not forget, then, that there are defenses of the institutions cited before: states are not forced to accept the aids, but even more important, is that really right to leave these countries free to use the money received however they want, considering that they usually have corruption and a lot of political and juridical problems? Moreover, throughout the last century a number of movements that want the relief of these countries from debt were created, meaning that many people have recognized the mistakes they had done in the past, and that this debt has always hold back their economies.

How to lead these countries out of the poverty trap? Using both grants from other states and institutions, managing them in a controlled way without at the same time tidying them to specific provisions, as well as through private investment. Sigrid Kaag, assistant administrator of the UN development program (UNDP), argues that without private investment there will be no significant growth. The private sector would clearly bring advanced knowledge, innovations, and tested models of commerce and of production. Only sharing this knowledge will enable the Third World to develop.

The truth is that as much as we can try, sending money is not enough to improve the life’s conditions of the developing countries. Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, admits that public funds are not sufficient, while giving a greater role to the private sector would bring new jobs. Along with these, even income would increase. This would eventually lead to improvements in the life and health conditions, in the instructions levels and in the creation of infrastructures.

The new companies, which would have just moved, would also mean a new revenue for the government, from taxes; they would be competitive for the markets, and for this reason emulated by those already present in the territory, leading to greater productivity. In the long term, all of this would improve goods’ quality, but at the same time making them cheaper. For example, the lowest segments of population are already a new market for US companies in India and Brazil. Moreover, not only private investment must concentrate in these territories to help them, but to grow as well: since the economic crises of 2008, the growth of the Third World has been an engine for our economies.

SOURCES:

- Worldbank.org
- UNDP.org
- IFC.org
- Baker, “Shaping the Developing World”

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): earnings in a high price

Trattato Transatlantico commercio estero e investimenti

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): earnings in a high price

Author: Pierre Varasi
19/03/2015
Translated by Ilaria Oberti

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a free trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. The agreement has been negotiating since 2013 and after years of informal drafts, it should be published within 2015, or at least this is what his supporters hope. Anyway criticism is hard and comes from different sides. The TTIP is officially defined by the EU as a trade and investment deal with the aim to improve trade and investment between EU and United States creating a real transatlantic trade, generating new economic opportunities – such as new job places – and creating growth through a bigger access to the market and a best regulatory compatibility. It will lay the foundations for global laws. In the case that this agreement will be approved, it could be extended to other primary partners of the two, European and American, giants.

Some of his main points are: opening up of the United States and EU markets, cutting off of the administrative burdens for the export companies (custom duties), setting of new rules to make export, import and investments overseas easier and fairer. To sum up, the agreement will open a new free trade zone with easier and better procedures. In economy the commercial policy instruments can be divided into: tariff tools – custom duties on the import and benefits on the export; quantitative tools – maximal quotas and voluntary restriction; non-tariff barriers – production, health standards and so on; dumping – the sale of products below the market value in the foreign markets; retaliatory measures – against unfair operation made by some countries or companies.

The TTIP has the aim to level out the non-tariff barriers, having as result zero custom duties and anti dumping. Even the public invitation to tender will be open to foreign companies. EU, United States and companies want to create new job places and to cut off the costs for the end users at the same time with an increase in the choice of the products. Just in Italy is expected a growth between 0,5% and 4% of the GDP and an increment in employment. In all, it is expected a growth of the export about 28%, in the amount of 187 billion of euros. These effects in this crisis period will surely bring a significant growth and optimistically they could bring to a complete end of the crisis. Moreover, the benefits would be also for the bureaucracy and the administration and even the biggest competition could bring to a bigger innovation.

However, the TTIP has to face hard criticism from some slow food associations, economists, private agencies and citizens. The criticism is based on reasons of any sort. Since the TTIP had been for long time a secret agreement regarding his contents, there was a lack of transparency, at least until January 7th of this year, date when the European Commission published the body copy of the negotiations.
More specific critics are about the standardization of the non-tariff barriers: for instance, in the United States the use of GMO, hormones for the meat and a really high quantity of pesticides is deliberately allowed. The American producers of groceries don’t have to follow the environmental protection or the animal health standards.

Obviously, leveling out the productive standards, the European users will be disadvantaged, seeing the growth of less quality products in their supermarkets due to the introduction of GMO products, which are not allowed in Europe for now. Moreover, the EU has some principles such as “farm to fork” and the precautionary principle. The first one is about a control of every steps of the production, always supervised and traceable. In the United States, instead, just the final products are controlled. The second principle is about another fundamental difference: as in Europe it is possible to pull back a product from the market if exists the risk that it is unhealthy – even if there are no scientific proofs – in the United States, without a clear correlation evidence between the product and the damage, the product remains in the market. In addition, in Europe is the company, that tries to put its product into the market, to have to proof its safety; in the United States is the public authority who has to claim for a harmful evidence, which happens rarely.

Also the economic boom, which is so promoted by the supporters of the agreement, can be attached by some criticism: lots of economists think that the job places will decrease instead of increasing – for instance because there will not be any laws about the national preference in case of an invitation to tender. Mr. Stiglitz, famous economist also for his critics against the IMF, affirms that “the United States, in fact, don’t want a free trade agreement, they want instead a management agreement that encourages some specific economic interests”. The quality controls of the products, in particular food and drugs, are in any case at the core of the thesis of the non-sympathizers of the agreement. The issue is: is it worth sacrificing some regulations and standards, to have a completely opening to the United States markets and to give a boost to both economies?

SOURCES :

- http://ec.europa.eu/index_en.htm (European Commission – Trade)
- ilpost.it “che cos’è il TTIP”
- http://stop-ttip-italia.net/

MERCOSUR: an agreement that have to be renewed

Mercosur

MERCOSUR: an agreement that have to be renewed

Pierre Varasi, 23/04/2015
Translated by Ilaria Oberti

MERCOSUR (or MERCOSUL, Southern Common Market) was established on March 26th 1991 by the Treaty of Asunción between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Four years later came into force bringing various improvement in the economy of these countries. The measures of this Treaty were different and represented an innovation for the Latin American countries. First of all, the free trade of products, services and raw materials between the members. Since 1995 duties and trade restrictions had been removed. This Treaty is similar to the EU’s common market: the members of the MERCOSUR has always stated that the EU was taken as example concerning the economical agreement between states.

Another fundamental issue was the creation of a common tariff towards thirds States. Gradually, entities have been established, which would coordinate the relationship between the member countries – with particular reference to agriculture, industry and everything significant from an economical point of view. These entities gave also advices to the states about which internal changes were needed to let the MERCOSUR grow: in fact the Treaty expected some obligations among which the real common market – this would have provided a free trade of not only money but also workforce. In the end, the member countries should have been democratic and guaranteed the same rights.

Since 1996 new states had joined MERCOSUR, among which Bolivia and Chile. In 2003 Peru joined and in 2004 Colombia and Ecuador. The last one was Venezuela in 2012. It was the entrance of Venezuela that called into question the foundation which this agreement was based on. Venezuela had Hugo Chávez as president from 1992 to 2013. For sure, there had been some boost of the Venezuelan economy, and not only, but Venezuela wasn’t a real and proper democracy. His nickname was “Socialist Dictator”. He died in 2013 and since then the new president of Venezuela has been Nicolas Maduro. Coming back to the MERCOSUR, not only the admittance of Venezuela represented the first exception of the principles of democracy, which are the basis of the agreement, but indeed Chávez worked against the principle of free trade, believing instead that it should have brought the agreement towards new socialist principles. Since 2012 none of the decisions made had been enforced from Venezuela, jeopardizing the efficiency of both the old and the new propositions.

Since Venezuela had joined MERCOSUR, this agreement has been focused more on political and social than economic issues. We still do not know which role would have this area in the future. However there could be support from the EU. In the first years of the agreement, MERCOSUR and EU have tried to collaborate, but since 1999 the collaborations has been interrupted and left in standby. Nowadays there could be the possibility of new collaboration between the two unions, in particular from the Uruguayan President Vazquez and the Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, which are hoping to get a proposal of dialogue from the EU. If this works out, there will be not only economic consequences for both the Unions, but also MERCOSUR could have a new “lifeblood” for a future modernization. Venezuela seems not so enthusiastic about the idea, but for now it hasn’t big influence and cannot sink the project.

The need of renewal is evident if considered that the goals proposed by the member countries in the ’90 are not yet reached – one for all there is no common tariffs nor policies towards thirds States. Such difficulties are also due to the extreme big differences among the member countries: it is difficult to have same policies when the inflation of one country is 6,7% (Uruguay, 2010) and of another is 27% (Venezuela, 2010). The same spokesmen of this agreement admit that if the principles are effectively implemented, it is due to the willing of the states that are only pursuing their own interests and not due to the willing of pursuing common interests or goals. Moreover, as the Uruguayan Ministry of the Foreign Affairs Rodolfo Nin Novoa said, nowadays MERCOSUR joins just 1% of the main trade made from countries that have chosen a free trade. Anyway, some changes will be needed. In the next future, MERCOSUR should evolve to reach some concrete results and to aim joining new trades.

SOURCES:

The economist
Mercopress.com
Buenosairessherald.com